Syria: What Obama hath wrought is about to become his successor’s nightmare
By Sol W. Sanders September 5, 2016
It would be hard to exaggerate the mess in the Middle East that President Barack Obama is leaving his successor.
While the five-year Syrian civil war continues unabated, pitting a number of different armed groups against each other with their foreign sponsors, Washington is caught in its own contradictions.
Whether Obama’s original threat to intervene in Syria, then withdrawn, would have made the difference in controlling the Mideast chaos, is an unanswerable question.
But there is no doubt that his policies have helped create the current chaotic situation, increasingly involving the major powers, that could be the beginning of a regional conflict spreading beyond its current confines.
In August American special forces assistance and bombing was hit with a Turkish incursion into northern Syria. What’s more, Ankara’s target was the American Kurdish Syrian ethnic ally most effective in the war.
Ankara fears Syrian Kurdish ethnics are attempting to set up a ministate, perhaps aiming to link up with the Kurdish armed guerillas it has been fighting at home for three decades, often with Soviet assistance.
The Turks fear America’s autonomous ally, the Syrian Kurds, the Kurdish region in Iraq, and ultimately, Iranian ethnic Kurds may try to form a new secessionist state together with their own huge Turkish Kurdish minority.
Meanwhile, Turkey accuses Americans of having been involved in the recent failed coup against an elected Turkish government, one that under Recep Tayyip Erdogan is steadily headed toward an authoritarian Islamicist regime. Erdogan blames Fethullah Gulen. Muslim cleric and politician, once his closest infiltrating the state judicial and security system, for leading the coup and has formally asked for his extradition from the U.S.
Turkish airmen at the NATO-Turkish-U.S. base at Incirlik air base near the Syrian border were accused by Erdogan of implication in the failed coup, and U.S. operations there aimed at the Daesh [ISIS or ISIL Islamic terrorists] were halted temporarily.
The sum of these parts was not a comforting scenario for Washington planners with nuclear weapons deployed there.
Erdogan’s leaky southern border has seen Islamicist support move south from Ankara and hundreds of thousands of migrants — some refugees from violence, others economic immigrants – moving on to Europe. His effort to blackmail German Chancellor Angela Merkel for additional aid and free movement of Turks inside the European Union in exchange for blocking the migrants has collapsed. Germany is hiccuping violently from the more than a million “refugees” it admitted last year following Merkel’s welcome.
Meanwhile, Obama continues to court Teheran’s mullahs. He signed what many believe was a unenforceable pact to halt Iran’s nuclear weapon, even though within weeks they publicly bragged of firing an intercontinental ballistic missile meant to carry such a weapon.
Then the American president went through secret contortions to pay $400 million – originally part of earlier arms purchases by the government of Reza Shah Palevi which Washington helped unseat – to free hostages. Billions more are apparently on the way.
The mystery is, of course, what Obama [and supporters of his Iran policy] think they are buying: Iran is already the world’s leading sponsor of state terrorism and has lined up Mediterranean satellites in Hizbullah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Both, of course, threaten Israel.
One of the troubled aspects between Jerusalem and Ankara, once close military allies, is Turkish support of Hamas, a common enemy now of Egypt and the Israelis.
Obama didn’t create the bitter and explosive Mideast animosities, of course. But he has built on that inheritance, antagonizing America’s tradition Sunni and Israeli allies in the region.
In Syria, the crux of the conflict, Turkey is ostensibly an ally of the U.S. in seeking to oust the Damascus regime under Basher al Assad, supported in turn by the Russians as well as the Iranians.
Moscow is creating naval and air bases in Syria – culpable in mass bombing of civilian populations – aiming at the old Soviet influence.
In six months, Obama can play golf. His successor faces a potential nightmare.