What history tells us about Trump's 2020 chances

FPI / September 24, 2019

Analysis by Onar Åm, LibertyNation.com

A recent business survey showed that two-thirds of top business executives believe that President Donald Trump will be re-elected. Is this an outlier? Along with his historical advantage as an incumbent, other factors seem to be mobilizing the president toward the winner’s circle. Among those are popularity polls, campaign enthusiasm, and a potential unformidable opponent. Consider that despite what the mainstream media are desperately trying to convey, most indicators point toward a victory for Trump in 2020. 

Momentum

History has shown that most sitting presidents are re-elected. In recent memory, only Presidents Jimmy Carter and George Bush Sr. served a single term. Trump likely goes into the 2020 election as an incumbent propelled by a booming economy. Usually, these two factors alone are enough to secure a win.

More popular than Obama

What modern-times leader has received more negative press than Trump? In the media, any Democrat candidate enjoys the home-team advantage, and Trump faces unimaginably stiff headwinds. Can all the negativity lavished on the president be a deciding factor?

Poll numbers suggest not. On Sept. 16, Trump’s average approval rating on Real Clear Politics surpassed that of President Barack Obama on the same day during his first term. Rasmussen often has the president outshining his predecessor. Obama was re-elected on those numbers, which suggests that Trump can be in line for a second term.

Enthusiasm

Another significant indicator is campaign enthusiasm. Trump has so far raised more money than all the Democratic candidates combined. Even in deep-blue California, he recently raised $15 million in a single day. By comparison, California’s presidential hopeful Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) has raised only $12 million in three months. 

Sent to Democratic strongholds in Minnesota, CNN reporters were stunned to learn that many folks are turning to Trump. You would have to go back to Richard Nixon to find a time when that state voted Republican, but in 2016 the race was close, with Trump losing to Clinton by a meager 44,000 votes. Don’t be surprised if Minnesota turns red in 2020.

Panic

Many Democrats are slowly waking up to the fact that Trump may likely win re-election in 2020. Their top candidate, former Vice President Joe Biden, is beginning to exhibit a lack of energy and focus, and even party stalwarts openly speculate about his fitness for office. Recently, former President Carter perplexed reporters by suggesting that there should be an age limit of 80 years to become president and talked about the importance of being able to concentrate. He did not mention Biden by name, but he is the only candidate who would run into this proposed age limit during his presidency. 

Despite his repeated gaffes and often incoherent speech, Biden remains the most popular Democrat in the race. This may not be a display of party strength but perhaps one of desperation. A significant number of Democratic voters are so dismayed by the ultra-progressive positions taken by the other candidates that they are willfully blind to Biden’s multiple weaknesses in the hopes that he has a shot at unseating the incumbent.

Trump is no ordinary president, so the course of his second run may defy the precedents of the past. But if the traditional political playbook holds sway, Trump is on his way to a second term.

Free Press International